Apparently Joe Harary's two-day swing through Texas had a purpose after all. What appeared to be a complete non-event (and was reported as such by attendees from the message boards) had a bit of a sting in the tail in the form of a new licensee in the Houston area, Craftsman Fabricated Glass.
A quick browse of the company site shows that Craftsman isn't so hot in terms of web presence. Their website, dated with a 2005 copyright, still has many "under construction" page stubs. This of course does not automatically mean they're not competent at their core business, but it definitely suggests they're not exactly a big time player, more like on the order of a Custom Glass, only in a larger local market.
Of course, the market, as is its wont these days, has just gone nuts on the news, running back up near the highs after a fairly steep pullback over the prior few days.
What must surely frustrate the shorts in this stock is how the stock just gaily runs up to the moon with no apparent expectations of the company actually producing any kind of revenues, much less profits. BUT... there may be a end to this tunnel vision in sight. At the Dallas luncheon Wednesday, Harary is reported to have announced a "small amount" of royalty income for the third quarter of this year, a "large amount" for the fourth quarter, and big-time growth through next year. So it's basically on the fourth-quarter report in February or early March to show something, or REFR will have finally, officially disappointed.
The blog plans to be here to see it happen. How about you?
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2 comments:
Hello Mike G, Oct. 20, 2007
I smile most times when I visit and read "REFR Madness". Mike, look at the chart. See the price action? See the trend? See the VOLUME? Why do you think it might be that the stock market doesn't heed the pessimistic viewpoints that have been expressed in "Madness"?
I'm a registered professional electrical engineer, PE, not affiliated with REFR; although I have been accumulating its shares in the open market.
I thought I'd drop you a line to let you know that, IMHO, REFR's very long and very diligently developed technology intuitively makes sense from a science, chemistry and engineering pov. Note that DuPont made a point of being one of their licensees, although I surmise just to keep tabs on what REFR is doing. Other very large glass and chemical companies are also licensees AND are actively pursuing their licensed business activities in Europe, Japan and now in the US with the addition of a new licensee. This technology is likely to be a huge blockbuster of a winner in the construction industry alone. The other targeted applications look good to me too; e.g., sunroofs in cars, airplane passenger windows, office conference room partitions, not to mention the "cool" factor that will help it find its way pervasively into many other applications in other industries.
I would encourage you get in touch with REFR and ask for a functional operating sample panel on a "loaner evaluation basis". You can send them this note as the idea originator. Then you can turn the "dimmer switch" (my term) and check it out yourself. You might (am not sure) have to give them a deposit as those things are no doubt in high demand.
I'm not really being critical of "Madness" here. Just trying to help. I think somehow you've been led astray. Btw, you just might want to pick up a few shares for yourself. The last I looked they were at 14.95 in a sharply down general market shakeout. They could back off to 10 or 12, who knows, after having such a sustained runup in the past few months. But you never know. As mentioned in your articles, the shorts have long been denuded of their trading money while investors are patiently watching both new end-product companies (e.g., window manufacturers) get added to REFR's portfolio of licensees and existing licencee companies formalize longer term business relationships.
All the best,
Mike S.
Reston VA
Apologies for the delay in publishing your comment, Mike. I'd forgotten that this blog was set to full manual moderation and didn't realize my action was required.
As for your arguments, we'll see soon enough. The price action is hard to argue with, but forty years is an awfully long time to be implementing any kind of strategy. In any case, there's a heck of a lot of expectations in the price at this point. Sooner or later, the company is going to have to produce something.
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