Tuesday, November 07, 2006

So what was that all about?

REFR longs and supporters were feeling their oats for much of the past week as the share price surged past the momentarily stable level of around $5.50 up to a high of $6.82 on Friday. Since there were no new reported developments on any front, the assumption was that there was a leak of some kind of something that would be officially released in short order.

Then, one uneventful weekend later, the stock suddenly throws it into reverse, dropping as low as $5.55 on the following Tuesday.

So what was that all about? Darn good question. One clue is found on the REFR website, mentioning how Joe Harary had made a presentation to the Susquehanna Financial Group Emerging Trends Conference on Wednesday the 1st. That would certainly account for the timing of the spike but not really the magnitude. Supposedly these were somewhat sophisticated attendees ("fund managers, analysts, and others") at this conference, who you would think would hardly be the types to chase the stock up 25% on nothing more than a presentation from the CEO.

Were there false rumors of new releases? Were the Susquehanna attendees really that ham-handed in their buying of REFR? Were there some kind of expectations for the upcoming quarterly report that were remanded over the weekend? These and other questions... probably won't ever be answered fully. But it's still fun to ask them.