No shortage of excuses

One claim that the apologists for REFR keep making (and one I'm surprised that I apparently haven't yet explicitly blogged) is that licensees needs to have massive "stockpiles" of SPD film in place before they can make the first sale. The theory being, that when SPD is finally exposed to public demand, that the response will be so overwhelming that unless the vendor is ready for thousands upon thousands of orders overnight, they won't be able to keep up with demand, and that that would be disastrous. Therefore, the theory concludes, the continued dearth of sales of SPD products is actually a bullish indicator, because the longer the delay, the more film the vendors are obviously accumulating so as to be ready for the demand they're anticipating.

Okay, while 90% of you finish your belly laugh, I'll explain it to the 10% for whom that theory makes perfect sense. The simple truth is that shortages are a problem you, as a supplier, want to have. Look at oil. Look at the iPhone. Look at just about every successful video game console released in the past decade.

It's Economics 101. When demand outstrips supply, you get to raise the price. That would be especially vital to the SPD market, where the number one concern is the ability to find buyers at the price point which production costs dictate.

Of course, I'm probably guilty of taking the argument way too seriously here. Obviously, if a year or more passes after a given claim that "supply concerns" are the reason sales haven't begun, that claim can be dismissed as bogus. Of course, by then, the apologists will retort, such a claim is "past history" and therefore irrelevant to the current state of the company.

And so the cycle continues.