Is SPD a "concept" technology?

Is REFR getting typecast?

Between the Jeep Rescue, the Juno, let's throw in the Kabura even though it was never established as SPD, and now the Hino S'elega Premium, SPD is establishing a considerable track record as a demonstration technology. But, with its subsequent failures to cross the gap into the real market, one has to wonder if it can ever do so.

Certainly, anyone considering SPD technology and researching it would have to be well aware of both SPD's proliferate demonstrations and dearth of market applications. Just as certainly, they could not be blamed for thinking to themselves, "SPD gets evaluated a lot, but never makes it into the market. Does that mean people are finding something wrong with it?"

That actually might partially explain the almost immediate reversal of the news that SPD is in yet another concept vehicle. Is there not a growing risk that prospective customers going to start thinking that maybe demonstrations and concepts are all SPD is actually good for?

Maybe SPD has reached that point and maybe it hasn't. But that's a concept Joe Harary and company really ought to consider carefully, before hauling SPD off to the next trade show demonstration.

Bus-ness as usual

Relentless rumormongering that REFR and SPD were going to make a big splash at the Tokyo Motor Show this month proved accurate... sort of.

According to a REFR press release, SPD glass was a feature in one of four concept vehicles unveiled by Hino Motors, a subsidiary of Toyota.

For Hino's part, their announcement of the display does eventually get around to mentioning glass with variable transparency, though for some reason it is referred to as "photochromatic", which SPD definitely is not.

Perhaps something was lost in translation, but what is most emphatically not lost, is the uncanny resemblance to the Setra rollout of four years ago, with the primary difference being that the Hino bus is a clearly labeled a concept vehicle, while Setra's bus supposedly had a small production run. (Although if so, REFR is still waiting for its royalty check from that.)

The market in REFR being what it is, of course, the stock instantly soared more than 10% to multi-year highs on the release. But a funny thing happened on the way to the $20 level that seemed inevitable early on this morning. Very quickly, the sell-the-news reaction kicked in. Rather startlingly, the stock gave back the whole rise inside of two hours, and actually finished in the red for the day. Maybe the investors with longer memories recalled that right after the Setra announcement, REFR stock hit a peak that it would go on to crash 75% from, and not recover for years.

One thing seems certain, the actual event paled in comparison to the months of endless message board hype that preceded it.