Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Options revisited

I'm sure almost nobody among the few people reading this blog is really into the minutiae of options. I personally find the topic a combination of boring and mystifying, and I consider myself more into things involving numbers than most people. Still, with the alternatives being lapsing back into radio silence or dissecting the message board's collective inability to parse the latest short interest figures properly, there really are no attractive options (pardon the expression) here.

But I do have to say that I find it a little odd that, even though the stock is trading around $11 at the moment, thus making the nearest strike price $10, there is zero activity on current options at the $10 strike, with $12.50 being the "mainstream" price instead.

Now, I'm sure there's a hundred different ways to spin this phenomenon, many of them directly contradictory, so I'm far from suggesting my personal take is the "correct" one. But it seems to me that the stands being taken are kind of a reflection of the contrast in styles of the opposing sides of this stock. The bears are content to sit back and exert whatever influence they have from a distance, accepting that any further decline in this stock is likely to be gradual (the events of the week before last notwithstanding), and that little is to be gained from placing a bet that can be lost by running out the clock.

The bulls, in contrast, are going all out, betting strictly out of the money and willing to lose their bets if the stock doesn't rebound and soon.

And yet, basically, the stock itself meanders.

I think that might say a thing or two about the direction of the path of least resistance right now.