Monday, April 07, 2008

How dogged can you get?

This blog has seen a lot of displays of groundless optimism for REFR's version of SPD over the years, but this one may be one for the record books.

As detailed previously, REFR was beaten out (assuming they were ever truly in the race) for the task of placing a variable tint on the windows of the Boeing 787. Despite the seemingly comprehensive statement from all parties concerned, REFR longs desperately held out hope (for more than two years!) that something would somehow go terribly wrong with Gentex and PPG's
implementation and that this would open the door for REFR and (presumably) Inspectech Aero to slap their stuff on the 787.

But as the rollout date for the 787 approaches (despite delays) and even that vague hope fades, the eyes of ever-hopeful REFR shareholders turn to Boeing's rival in the commercial airliner business, Airbus. Specifically, they have set their hopes on SPD finding its way into the next major Airbus offering, the A350 XWB.

But there's just a small problem there, in the form of an article on AIN Online last January, reading:

A350XWB Will Offer Electrochromic Cabin Windows

Buyers of an executive version of the new Airbus A350XWB will have the option of selecting the electrochromic (or “smart windows”) technology from PPG. The windows, developed by Gentex of Zeeland, Mich., contain an organic di-electric gel.

When a very low electrical current is introduced, the gel will darken, rendering the window opaque. When no electrical current is present, the window allows the passage of approximately 60 percent of outside light.

Airbus claims the windows on the A350XWB will be larger than those of any other bizliner.

Now, granted, an isolated, unsourced article is rather far from definitive, and furthermore only covers a specific sub-model of the airliner, but you might think that this might temper the enthusiasm of REFR's shareholders somewhat. That is, of course, assuming you knew nothing about REFR's shareholders.

The counter-spin on this article was prompt. One post, for example, read into the article that the Gentex windows were strictly going to be an aftermarket option, while REFR's product would be more prominently marketed.

That was by way of build-up to the recent Hamburg Air Expo, where shareholders convinced themselves that Airbus would announce that SPD was their window-dimming technology of choice for the A350. But it turned out -- get ready for a shock -- that didn't happen.

So, the spin this morning is that Airbus for reasons known only to themselves, was staying mum about their relationship with REFR (and forcing REFR to do likewise) and that there was nothing for it but to keep waiting.

At this point I should note that the A350 is scheduled for its maiden flight sometime in 2012. That's quite a wait indeed, for shareholders in a company with only enough cash on hand to make it through 2009. Guess they better start saving up now to absorb the next stock offering!