Another group of anonymous "accredited" investors, apparently acting upon an urge to pay as much as they conceivably could for shares of REFR, gave Joe Harary and company and big "I Love You" this Valentine's Day by gifting the profitless company another $6.65 million, by purchasing nearly 700,000 shares at $9.75 each. Given that that is a price level reached last week for the first time in almost three years, and that REFR's price was barely more than half that just over a month earlier, and that the events leading to the sudden spike in price are far from guarantees that anything will change with regard to REFR's profitability, it's hard not to conclude that this is more about keeping REFR solvent at any cost than it is about actually making money on the shares purchased.
Regardless, the check's been cashed and REFR will be with us on into the next presidential administration. I tend to expect that there won't be much to report now that the mission has been accomplished, but just in case we'll keep an eye on things.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Monday, February 12, 2007
A Raytheon of hope?
If you've been following REFR this past week you don't need me to tell you that the stock's had a lot of action in the past week, soaring to price highs not seen since the beginning of this blog almost two years ago. Just as the momentum was fading from the prior week's news regarding delivery of an unspecified amount of film to a small licensee, up pops a new release (links to PDF) from no less than Raytheon Aircraft, saying that they will market Inspectech's shading systems to their base of 6200 King Air private aircraft owners.
Needless to say, the notion of "Raytheon's selling SPD!" has invigorated the longs and spooked the shorts and long story short the REFR's share price has more than doubled from the beginning of the year -- all before the first sale has even been made.
And therein lies at least the beginnings of the catch in this tale. Splashy PR's aside (as one source noted, somewhat suspiciously including REFR's stock symbol in the text of the release itself), there's no way of knowing what kind of actual sales effort is going to go to a market that caps out at a few thousand installations. Now, you might answer by suggesting that this might only be a prelude to a wider-scale rollout, but if that's the case, then why not be upfront that this is a test market? (Not to mention how REFR needs cash now, and can't be comfortable waiting for the results of a test marketing effort to come in.)
Another point of interest. While Raytheon Aircraft carries a splashy name, it won't for long. Raytheon Aircraft is in the process of being sold to Onex Partners, a Toronto holding company, whereupon the company will change its name to Hawker Beechcraft. (A name, as an aside, which leaves one to wonder about the future of the King Air product line.)
At any rate, with an imminent merger and subsequent reorganization looming, there's really no assurance that this arrangement will even survive more than a few months. But of course, that message is completely lost in the middle of the mini-mania going on over the shares of this tiny patent company in Woodbury, NY. Such is the way of the world, I guess.
Needless to say, the notion of "Raytheon's selling SPD!" has invigorated the longs and spooked the shorts and long story short the REFR's share price has more than doubled from the beginning of the year -- all before the first sale has even been made.
And therein lies at least the beginnings of the catch in this tale. Splashy PR's aside (as one source noted, somewhat suspiciously including REFR's stock symbol in the text of the release itself), there's no way of knowing what kind of actual sales effort is going to go to a market that caps out at a few thousand installations. Now, you might answer by suggesting that this might only be a prelude to a wider-scale rollout, but if that's the case, then why not be upfront that this is a test market? (Not to mention how REFR needs cash now, and can't be comfortable waiting for the results of a test marketing effort to come in.)
Another point of interest. While Raytheon Aircraft carries a splashy name, it won't for long. Raytheon Aircraft is in the process of being sold to Onex Partners, a Toronto holding company, whereupon the company will change its name to Hawker Beechcraft. (A name, as an aside, which leaves one to wonder about the future of the King Air product line.)
At any rate, with an imminent merger and subsequent reorganization looming, there's really no assurance that this arrangement will even survive more than a few months. But of course, that message is completely lost in the middle of the mini-mania going on over the shares of this tiny patent company in Woodbury, NY. Such is the way of the world, I guess.
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