Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Flirting with legitimacy

Not everything REFR has done has been a cynical attempt to fool someone. In 2003 and early 2004, REFR, for a few shining months, flirted with legitimacy and had their SPD film shown off by a major corporation in some potentially very high-profile showcases.

Yet, as with everything else related to REFR, it all came to naught.

The corporation in question was no less than automaker Daimler-Chrysler. In September 2003, the news broke, in the form of a DCTV film (intended primarily for internal consumption) showing off the new TopSky feature on a model of Setra bus. The TopSky looked like it might be SPD (the common shorthand for suspended particle devices), and, about a week later, a press release from REFR confirmed that it was! The stock soared as high as $16 on the news.

Then, inexorably, it fell back. Followup on TopSky was scarce. Eagle-eyed researchers noticed that TopSky didn't quite come off as well in the film as a first glance would indicate. The large roof panel darkened unevenly, and the change in transparency wasn't nearly as great as it was on the small demo panel also seen in the film. Furthermore, there was what looked like a conscious attempt to "juice" the apparent effect of SPD, timing the SPD darkening of the sunroof to coincide with the sun going behind a cloud. Ultimately, the stock settled around $9 for most of that autumn.

But there was a second string to this bow, and it emerged in January 2004: Daimler was showing off an SPD sunroof on their headliner concept vehicle, the Jeep Rescue, at the North American International Auto Show! Finally, this was SPD's golden opportunity to break into the big time on the world stage! The stock once again soared into the low teens.

But once again, there were problems. Only REFR was pointing out the SPD sunroof. Daimler was silent about it. Indeed, Daimler even seemed to go out of their way to keep the SPD sunroof out of the spotlight. Nearly every photo of the Rescue was taken either level on, or down from below roof level. Promoters tittered that Daimler was setting up for the big showoff of what the roof could do later in the show, but that never happened. The SPD sunroof was never mentioned by Daimler, much less demonstrated. Only one very observant show reporter even referred to it. SPD, to shareholders' consternation, was dwelling in obscurity even in plain sight of the world.

A review of the REFR press release revealed additional worries. SPD Inc., the joint venture with Hankuk that supplied the SPD glass for the Setra, was not even mentioned in the Rescue press release. Taking its place was Inspectech Aero Services, a licensee that had never before been associated with the auto industry. (There's much more to tell about Inspectech, but that's for a later entry.)

REFR stock continued to rally well, though, but a few weeks later, it began to falter. Its agreement with source of funding, an obscure outfit known as Ailouros Ltd., ran out, and the promotional efforts of the company fell silent.

Then in April 2004, the bombshell hit. SPD Inc., the great white, er, blue hope for the promotion of SPD technology, was shutting down. REFR had been writing off the joint venture a little at a time, and in March, the writeoff became complete. Strangely, REFR's loss in the venture was total, and it got no share of the proceeds from sale of the equipment SPD Inc. supposedly owned to make the SPD film. Shares of REFR steadily declined all summer from $11 down to $6.

Thus passed into history REFR's closest approach to the big time to date. Other licensees have since been recruited to fill the void left by SPD Inc., but it's anybody's guess when an opportunity like Daimler will come again for REFR.

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