Beyond the mountains, more BS

One enterprising reader with more tolerance for empty rhetoric than this blogger recently pointed out a particularly strained analogy in the latest REFR annual report. Quoting the correspondent's account of the report (the actual report is, almost predictably, not yet available on the REFR website):

"There is a Hatian(sic) proverb: "Beyound the mountains are more mountains." This proverb applies to most companies involved in bringing a new technology to market. In R&D, after one issue is resolved, others sometimes arise. It is appropriate to note that Haiti is an island nation, so that eventually, with perseverance and hard work, the mountains will end, the goal is reached, and smooth sailing across the ocean of opportunity can begin."

Notice how Harary actually turns the proverb completely on its head. The proverb speaks to how life always has another challenge to throw at you. Harary's vision is one of a switch flipping someday (soooooon!!) and all of REFR's challenges suddenly coming to an end, replaced by effortless perpetual cash flow.

Sorry, but that's the talk of a shyster.

Theoretical down-the-road challenges for REFR are legion. Conventional electrochromics by such companies as Gentex have already beaten SPD heads-up in the automotive and aeronautical market. Liquid crystal-based technology is always lurking. And there are plenty of wildcards out there like the material the Huskies are developing.

Then there's REFR's patent protection, which grows more questionable by the day. Shareholders have often been heard gloating at other companies receiving patents based on Harary's old patents (or in some cases, merely mentioning SPD in passing as a theoretically possible component of their invention), calling it proof of how interested in SPD companies are. Not occurring to them, apparently, is how those patents give the companies receiving them a nominal claim on the technology itself. And then there's the matter of whether REFR can even afford to fight a patent dispute. The upshot of all of this being that REFR may in fact have lost control of its own technology.

Of course, all that would remain to be seen in a patent court, and that won't happen until there's actually something to fight over.

As an amusing footnote, another correspondent produced a quote from Robert Saxe, citing the exact same Haitian proverb with the exact same twisting into the opposite meaning, dated 1993. Thirteen years later, and REFR's still sitting on the same mountain.

Give a hoot, don't dilute!

REFR bowed to the inevitable Friday, filing an S-3 with the SEC to register another two million shares of common stock for sale. In combination with the one million shares unsold from the previous filing, that represents more than 20% potential dilution to its investors, should REFR successfully recapitalize themselves in the next eight months. Of course, if they don't, that will be even worse for its investors.

Of course, whether there will be any takers this time around is another issue. In REFR's favor, there's a better economy about and investment dollars are flowing a bit more freely. Against them, their track record of failure is a little bit longer and a little bit more public. Fortunately for them, the recent high volumes suggest that they have successfully moved Stark Investments out of the picture and thus set up a clean slate for the next suc... er, institutional investor.

As P. T. Barnum would put it, an institutional investor is born every minute, so hope remains that Bob and Joe will find someone out in the big, wide world sufficiently naive to the REFR story that they will be reeled in. (Even though Stark seems to have made out all right in the end, it's unlikely we will see them coming back for seconds, especially after the 50% haircut they were staring down at one point.)

Time will tell.

A paucity of capacity

In an uncharacteristically helpful gesture on their part, the mangement of REFR issued an 8-K filing presenting the highlights of this afternoon's conference call. Specifically, they pointed out information that could be considered "new" for disclosure purposes. All of it, interestingly, concerned the progress of film licensee Hitachi Chemical, which had not been officially heard from in some time, despite being touted as being in the lead in terms of production progress.

Hitachi was reported to have a production line capable of producing film about 19 inches in width (narrower than the film Dainippon was reported to have produced), with a second line due to be activated later this year. The second line was said to be planning widths "in excess of one meter", with an expected capacity "measured in the tens of thousands of square feet per month".

Wow, that's... not very much. Let's run a little math, shall we?

We'll start by making some very generous assumptions:

• End-product licensees will be able to command $30 a square foot for the film, and sell out the full capacity of the new line.
• The capacity of the new line is 50,000 square feet per month (it could easily be half that and the announcement would not be misleading)
• REFR will collect royalties on 10% of the cost of the film (on most products the royalty cut is 5% of the sale price, we'll be generous and assume SPD to only be half the cost of the product).

Given that extremely favorable set of assumptions, the annual revenue to REFR would come to $1.8 million a year, or less than half the company's expenses. Throw in the original line, whose capacity is presumably not "in the tens of thousands of square feet per month", and you get to maybe $2.2 million a year.

Naturally, the mathematically-challeged SPDiots are already counting their cash dividends.

Bottom line, even making an almost comically optimistic set of assumptions, there is still no apparent path to break even cash flow in the foreseeable future for REFR. And when you add a dose of reality to the mix, in the form of management's chronic tendency to grossly underdeliver, and it quickly begins to resemble business as usual in Woodbury.

Stop and go trading

Just wanted to remark on the heavy trading volume in REFR, the largest in ten years, over one million shares. Clearly something is up, but what exactly that is remains a mystery. At least for three more days, as the "big news" triggering today's upsurge was the announcement of the company's annual conference call, scheduled for this Thursday afternoon (a full three weeks after the filing it is supposed to discuss).

Even more odd is the intraday trading pattern. Effectively, there was basically no volume until just a little before 10:00am ET, a half-hour into the session. Then the price spiked in a matter of moments, only to quickly settle up about 10% up from the previous close. Then heavy trading kicked in for about 90 minutes, after which, just as suddenly, the trading all but came to a halt. No, it was not an official halt; rather, it was just the traders in the stock spontaneously walking away from it. About 45 minutes later it resumed, only to take another 15 minute break a half hour later. After that came relatively steady trading through to an active close.

To the casual observer, who in a couple of weeks will only have access to the daily volume totals, this will no doubt come off as an establishment of widespread bullish interest in REFR. But between you and me, reader, this "interest" is about as natural as Velveeta.

Regardless of what I think, one thing is clear, and that is that something of interest to REFR, one way or another, is going to come out on Thursday. I'm staying on record that it's some kind of upper management change, most likely the very-due retirement of founder Bob Saxe, but I admit that's more gut instinct than anything else. At any rate, whatever it is, we shall soon see.

Uh oh, Asensio!

As if the past week were not eventful enough for a company notable primarily for its dormancy over the past couple of years, an old acquaintance of REFR's, the research firm Asensio and Company, has broken a nearly four-year silence on the company's continued failure to produce results of any kind. The firm, which, depending on who you talk to, may or may not maintain a connection with its namesake founder, controversial short-seller (a phrase about as redundant these days as "tall basketball player") Manuel Asensio, issued two brief reports Thursday summarizing the total failure the company has been over the years, referencing, as noted here first, the questionable lack of a "going concern" clause in the recent 10-K filing, and hypothesizing that the company's ability to raise funds to pay its management's comfortable salaries may be nearing an end.

Reaction to the reports was swift and predictable. It was noted that the report stated that REFR has been trying to sell SPD glass for years, when in fact it has not been trying to do any such thing. So apparently the primary objection to the report is that it gives REFR too much credit.

Other various charges were hurled at Mr. Asensio himself, none worth the dignifying that spelling them out here would give them. Suffice it to say that even asensioexposed.com, your one-stop shop for ad hominem attacks on various short-sellers including Asensio, is thus far not touching them.

Seems like everything old is new again, in REFR land.

Stock rally -- some assembly required

Normally, when a small, unregarded company suddenly releases "BIG BIG" news in the morning, the result is a giant upsurge in volume and large run-up in price (at least in the near term).

Leave it to REFR to put even that basic process into slow motion.

On Monday, REFR announced that licensee Dainippon had updated their license to include production of film (previously, they were only licensed to produce badly-outdated SPD emulsions). This astounding developement led to a large upsurge in volume... on Tuesday, and large spike in the price of REFR... on Wednesday.

However that managed to happen, the whole effect comes off as hideously unnatural. Furthermore, with the tight wraps the company keeps on its stock, it's all but a lock that the company has a good idea who was involved in all that trading on Tuesday. Will the rest of us ever be let in on the secret? Your guess is as good as mine.

Regardless, yet another rally has been blunted right at the $5.00 mark that has dominated this stock since last February's offering. So some things, apparently, have not yet changed.

Meanwhile... an old acquaintance has returned to the scene after a lengthy absence. More on that Monday.

BAMASS Surprised at Latest REFR PR

The Bashers' and Manipulators' Association (BAMASS) announced that it was surprised by Research Frontiers, when the latter put out its first news release in five months this morning, announcing that Japan's Dainippon Ink and Chemical had expanded its license to produce SPD emulsions, to include production of SPD film.

Bill Asher, spokesman for BAMASS, announced, "This PR was rather startling. We had previously thought that Dainippon was already fully licensed to produce film. We now have our researchers scanning the licensee lists for other instances of licensees with outdated licenses whose updating could presage further press releases." There are currently no other licensees listed as being licensed for emulsion but not film.

Asher went on to add, "I have full confidence that Dainippon will make just as much use of their new license as they did with their emulsion license."

Eight weeks a month

REFR bulls have rallied behind a CNET News.com article by editor at-large Michael Kanellos. The article heavily quotes John Petraglia, CEO of SPD Control Systems, noted previously as yet another in a line of cookie-cutter REFR licensees which come out of nowhere, make a little noise to get a few people excited, then vanish to leave nothing but their name on REFR's burgeoning list of licensees. In a shocking development, Petraglia spoke optimistically of the technology his company is licensed to sell.

Besides the amusingly obscure mention of Leminur, which apparently does exist after all, only now under a different name, and no particular favoritism to SPD or REFR, the highlight of the article appears to be the very beginning of the article, wherein Kanellos writes: "Smart Glass, which will be shown off and discussed more fully in about eight weeks...".

Bulls in REFR have gone nuts trying to parse exactly what that refers to. So far the consensus on the message boards appears to be that the article foreshadows a major development of some kind within the next month. (Hey, eight weeks, one month, who's counting?) Critics responded by yawning and hitting the snooze button, knowing full well that asking any of the bulls for any sort of clarification on what they mean is a waste of time.

Meanwhile, with only nine months or so before the cash runs out, the heat is decidedly on for REFR to find some source of cash infusion to keep the lights on. Given the usual regulatory hurdles that need to be cleared, things need to start happening pretty soon if they're going to make it. So next month way well be interesting to watch. Unless, of course, it isn't.

Out with the old?

Research Frontiers, ever full of surprises (or full of something, anyway), submitted its 10-K for fiscal year 2005 yesterday, a full two days ahead of the deadline. For the year, they amassed $138,742 in "fee income", the lowest level since 1999. (Ironic that the stock should have done so well that year!)

One point of interest that has come up is the assertion that REFR will have sufficient funds to make it into Q1 2007 without additional funding (a necessary assertion to avoid the dreaded "going concern" clause in their filing).

But elsewhere in the filing, the numbers don't quite add up to support that claim. Cash as of the end of 2005 was pegged at $3,644,685, while "net cash used in operating activites" for 2005 was $3,920,835. The same figure in 2004 was slightly less than $3.64 million, but that included a non-repeating cash gain from the remnants of SPD Inc.

Any way you cut it, the company, as it is, seems to come up a little bit short of being able to make it to years' end solvent. Presumably, then, REFR has some kind of plan to cut costs to allow themslves to stretch their cash out until December.

Given that the details of how REFR spends its cash are a bit murky to say the least, it's hard to speculate just where the cuts might come, but one sizeable item suggests itself.

Chairman, founder and director Robert Saxe has devoted 40 years to... well, whatever it is REFR does, and by all standards figures to be ready to move on to an enjoyable retirement. (Paid for by... well, let's not go there today.) If Saxe were to announce his retirement at the annual meeting this year, that would, based on his 2004 salary, trim roughly $250,000 from REFR's expenses for the year. In and of itself that's still not quite enough, but that gets the target into range, wherein a simple matter of deferring a couple of payables by a month or two, or maybe a handful of exercises of cheap stock options, gets them across the December 31st finish line intact.

So could that be it? Could this be Saxe's last ride? Will this officially become Joe Harary's company before the year is out? And if so, will Harary display the same kind of, er, patience as Saxe has over the years? Stay tuned.

A message board retrospective

Bill Wexler, longtime follower of what he bluntly refers to as "the REFR stock fraud", is back with a new retrospective on the follies posted to the Yahoo! REFR message board.

By way of editorial comment, I should note that there really is not much remarkable about overly optimistic posts from the year 2000, particularly during the spring and summer, when the reality of the bear market hadn't really set in yet.

What is remarkable, though, is that even to this day, you see the same kind of talk, from mostly the same people (even as the aliases have changed over time), backed up by the same utter lack of results from the company. The only difference, really, is that the stock has not gotten crushed as badly in more recent years. Time will tell if the line can continue to hold long enough to the company to place the next round of shares at a useful price.

Anyway, with that as prologue, please join me at the summit as we ski down REFR Hubris Mountain. Take care though, it does hit double-diamond in spots...

"Buy REFR, it's the best buy on the market and has more potential than any other stock I know of..."
-- February 17, 2000. REFR closing price: $38 5/8 (all-time high close)

"I just wish REFR would pull back one more time (maybe mid 20's?) so I can pick up another few thousand shares. Then it's off to the outer-banks for unlimited Coronas and hot crab balls..."
-- February 22, 2000. Closing price: $37

"I'm going to buy waterfront in the islands with all the money I'm gonna make on REFR..."
-- March 28, 2000. Closing price: $34 1/2

"There are not a whole hell of a lot of customer sell orders out there, people are holding..."
-- March 30, 2000. Closing price: $31 1/2

"I think we bagged the elephant..."
-- March 31, 2000. Closing price: $29 1/2

"This stock is headed to the moon soon..."
-- April 7, 2000. Closing price: $27 3/4

"There are no shares for sale - you are a dead duck..."
-- July 28, 2000. Closing price: $25 1/16

"There are no shares for sale - you are a dead duck..."
-- August 2, 2000. Closing price: $23 1/16

"Recent scale up by emulsion suppliers, advanced commercialization by licensees and hiring of new employees to handle new licensee applications all points to this occurring. That is why longs are not selling..."
-- August 15, 2000. Closing price: $22

"I bought 1000 additional shares this morning...I have been accumulating since 1998...The company has never looked better or more grossly undervalued..."
-- August 21, 2001. Closing price: $20.80

"NO ONE is selling! Too many GOOD things happening with licensees..."
-- January 7, 2002. Closing price: $19.00

"Why the Shorts will lose a lot of money..."
-- February 22, 2002. Closing price: $17.30

"SHORTS PANIC!!!"
-- April 8, 2002. Closing price: $16.80

"Shorts Defeated Again..."
-- May 15, 2002. Closing price: $15.29

"The LONGS aren't selling!!!"
-- June 1, 2002. Closing price: $13.81

"There's no fundamental reason to sell. SPD products are still coming out..."
-- July 9, 2002. Closing price: $12.50

"But if I were a trader where do I see the biggest gain? LONG!"
-- August 22, 2002. Closing price: $11.35

"Asensio and his CONSPIRATORS are going to be here until LONGS decide to sell.
...and THAT doesn't look like ANYTIME BELOW $50 a share!!!"
-- August 23, 2002. Closing price: $10.35

"LONGS ARE FEEEEEEEELING THEIR POWER!!!"
-- September 9, 2002. Closing price: $9.60

"YOU are TRAPPED IN REFR, because YOU CAN'T get LONGS to sell!!!"
-- January 10, 2003. Closing price: $8.60

"Where are the promised windows? What kind of stupid question is that?"
-- January 31, 2003. Closing price: $7.34

"REFR SHORTS FAIL TO GET LONGS TO SELL!!"
-- February 28, 2003. Closing price: $6.70

"Longs are BUYING, NOT SELLING!!!"
-- March 19, 2003. Closing price: $5.66

And now a lengthy coast to the lodge and the present day, where we see...

The price going down represents to us just one more (maybe the last) opportunity to own one of the great technologies of all time at a bargain price.
-- January 26, 2006. Closing price: $4.99

Do tell.

Kooks and Kabura

Ostensibly, it has been a dormant start to 2006 for our favorite patent licensing company. No new licensees, no public announcements, and still no word on when the big-name licensees would be ready to produce second-generation SPD film in quantity.

But you would not know this from reading the Yahoo! REFR message board.

The titter all this month on that board has been over a description of the 2006 Mazda Kabura concept car which included the statement, "Overhead portions of the glass have adjustable tinting so that the driver can twist a knob on bright days to change the roof’s opacity, as desired, from clear to completely opaque."

Well our favorite investors put two and two together and -- news flash! -- decided that the adjustable tinting material in question must be SPD. Never mind small details such as the windows being reported as going "completely opaque", a characteristic never ascribed to SPD.

Eventually, however, it was confirmed that the material in question was in fact SPD. And when I say "confirmed", I mean that an anonymous alias posted a message asserting, without evidence, that it was confirmed. Meanwhile, someone posted an article from the British Channel 4 website which asserted that the Kabura's roof was in fact "electrochromatic". This all led to an amusing discussion over the distinction between "electrochromic" and "electrochromatic", whether those terms were inclusive or exclusive of SPD, and which of them was the proper expansion of the shorthand "EC". Needless to say, nothing was resolved on any of those scores.

What we do know is this: neither Mazda nor REFR nor any source outside of the message boards has ever once mentioned any relationship between SPD and the Kabura. Mind you, all of those can and have been rationalized away: Mazda is being secretive (about an auto show display?!), REFR may be contractually barred from publicizing (people are on to them!), and the press is lazy (somehow it became their job to do REFR's publicity for them).

But by this time it's a moot point. By the time you read this, the Detroit International Auto Show will have closed. Any press release at this point asserting that the adjustable tint material was in fact SPD will be completely after the fact and therefore ineffective for publicity purposes.

Worse still, such a release would call to mind the Jeep Rescue debacle from the 2004 Detroit auto show. It would mean that twice in a span of two years, an auto company was so underwhelmed by SPD in practice that they deliberately avoided reference to it even
though it was in plain sight. The last time that happened, the major supplier of film shut down a few months later.

Frankly, were I a REFR shareholder, I'd rather forget the whole thing.

New Year's scorecard review

2005 proved to be an active year for REFR after (by REFR's standards), as progress was arguably made towards no less than two of the twelve items on the REFR announcement scorecard. "Plans" were announced by Isoclima to introduce film into the market, in conjunction with their demo display at an Italian glass show in early October. Then, soon thereafter, details came to light regarding a church construction project in Arkansas, which, as things stand, is currently slated to incorporate SPD window shading. Whether that actually comes off as planned remains to be seen, and then there's the question of what qualifies as a "major" architectural project. Since there has been no announcement as such, we can't really give them a "yes" on that one yet anyway, but it is something that may be showing up in the coming weeks.

On the downside, the jumbo jet announcement looks dead, and the marine and automotive markets look very distant. And of course, as things stand, the money is scheduled to run out just about one year from right now, so more share dilution is on the way, assuming they can find someone to front for them for the next round. But that's the fun of this: even with a company as predictably unproductive as this one, there's still so much that manages to remain shrouded in mystery. Let's watch and see what 2006 brings to Woodbury. shall we?

Boeing Boeing Gone... this time for good

The mystery of the Boeing 787 dimmable windows is over. The funny thing is, everybody was wrong. But it is the shareholders of REFR that wind up with coal in their stock(ings), as ever.

Neither Jamco, nor the University of Washington, nor REFR will be seeing their product take flight on the windows of the Dreamliner. Rather, PPG Aerospace has been selected to provide the windows, much as they have provided windows for prior incarnations of the 7x7 aircraft series.

No doubt, supporters of REFR are working on some way in which REFR might somehow get in on the action, but, given that PPG surely has demonstrated the technology they will use, and that they are most definitely not one of REFR's licensees, it appears that this avenue of promotion for REFR is once and for all time closed.

Reaching new pinnacles

I know I haven't been here to update in a while, but frankly, there hasn't been a whole heck of a lot going on with REFR lately, despite what the recent surge in its share price to near $7 might suggest. There is one development of some interest, though, involving REFR's latest effort at a pilot project for SPD.

The Church at Pinnacle Hills of Rogers, Arkansas, up in the Ozarks of northwestern Arkansas, is in the process of building a grand new worship center. It's a pretty big deal in that region, and very much a 21st century project. There are even webcams that allow you to view the progress of construction.

REFR's interest in this project is revealed through contractor Brawner and Associates. The large window facing the main worship center is expected to have "smart glass" in order to control the level of light. An article (PDF) included on Brawner's website goes on to state that technology used in the "smart glass" will be SPD.

Assuming nothing changes (and naturally, the message board mavens are assuming exactly that), it will be a nice feather in REFR's cap. Relatively speaking, of course. In the bigger picture, needless to say, they remain a public company dealing in terms of individual, one-shot projects, which, any way you cut it, is far from a truly desirable state of affairs.

Still, it will be interesting to watch and see how this develops. Will SPD remain the technology of choice for this project? Will film of adequate quality be available? Will the price tag be reasonable? Will REFR step in to make it reasonable? So many questions for a company so reticent in providing answers. But maybe we'll get them this time.

All hail SPD (insert rest of company name here)!

In a sign that REFR is not yet willing to depart from its old reliable SOP, the company announced the signing up of a brand-new licensee. The new company, SPD Control Systems, is so far basically indistinguishable from every other REFR licensee whose name begins with "SPD".

SCSC's chairman and founder, Jay Moskowitz, does have the distinction of actually having a track record as a businessman. However, his most recent company, Wireless Marvels, appears to have gone nowhere after producing its only material product a combination golf ball/FM radio. (Not kidding.) His biggest success story, per his bio, appears to have been selling his RTS Wireless company for a healthy $111 million. Not too bad, but one has to keep in mind that valuation dates to 2000, when company values were just a wee bit inflated. Not to mention that the acquiring company, Aether Systems, went into a bit of a nosedive shortly thereafter, and has since abandoned the wireless sector entirely. (Yes, it is the same company, see Aether Holdings' Yahoo profile.)

All in all, Moskowitz seems to fit the profile of a prospective REFR licensee, as in, being willing to try just about anything once. With the kind of money he has in the bank, he can no doubt well afford to have whatever he puts into this come to nothing. If only the REFR investors who giddily bought up shares during the recent rally could say the same.

Boeing, Boeing, gone

After literally years of demands from REFR promoters that any viable alternative to SPD that could be used in Boeing's Dreamliner's advertised smart window shading system, they have finally gotten what they "wanted" as the technology supplier for the 787 window shades has at long last stepped forward.

In the October newsletter of the University of Washington's college of engineering, it was announced that a chemical-reaction based technology called "redox switching" developed at the college's Center for Intelligent Materials and Systems was to be the active technology in the windows' ability to become gradually more transparent or opaque at the touch of a button.

While reaction from promoters is still pending as of this writing, it seems that this is the final proof that Inspectech and SPD are not going to be suppliers for the Boeing 787, despite the bulls' previous insistence that Boeing had no feasible alternative to use.

Perhaps most troubling of all to REFR shareholders: the developers of redox switching indicated ambitions far beyond the aeronautical sector in the UWash newsletter article. Dr. Minoru Taya, directory of the CIMS, indicated commercialization was likely to begin within a few months. That right there puts it right about level with the claimed progress of SPD, with the main difference being that Taya's group does not have a multiple-decade track record of miserably failing expectations.

(Update, 7:18PM: REFR bulls did come back with a pretty fair rejoinder, in that the UWash article does not appear to square with Klaus Brauer's earlier descriptions of where the 787's window technology had been used earlier. Regardless, this still appears to be quite unwelcome competition for the gang from Woodbury.)

What the H?

(This post originally stated in error that Isoclima's Chromalite trademark was registered. It is in fact not, a trait common to many if not most or all trademarks related to SPD.)

A rather amusing sidelight has arisen from Monday's "blockbuster" Isoclima/REFR press release. In the main text of the release, Isoclima General Director Alberto Bertolini talked about REFR's SPD-Smart Glass, "which we market under the trademark ChromaLite(TM)." However, at the end of the press release, the disclaimer reads: "CromaLite(TM) is a trademark of Isoclima S.p.A."

Okay, you say, so somebody made a typo, so what. Admittedly, not a whole lot but... what is the correct spelling of Isoclima's trademark? If one went to the Isoclima website, one might come across their R&D page, which includes a picture of a "test on electrochromic CromaLite® glass". But if one looked up REFR's most recent 10-K, one would find in the licensee trademark list (about five screenfuls down) that Isoclima's trademark name is given as "ChromaLite".

Now, maybe it's just me, but if I had this product which was supposed to be busting into this brand-new, multi-billion-dollar market for switchable glass, I'd think I'd make sure I knew how to spell my product's name. It certainly does leave one to wonder just how much thought Isoclima is really putting behind this whole marketing campaign.

Regardless, as the Vitrium show closes and REFR stock slips back in the direction from whence it came, leaving behind a brand new group of bagholders in the hole on their purchases of this stock, the fact that the press release that triggered their purchases at $4.70 and above contained such a basic error simply adds the insult to the injury.

The great debut

Good morning!

The Red Sox are in the playoffs, Bush has made a new Supreme Court nomination, but who cares about any of that because ISOCLIMA IS SHOWING GEN 2 SPD AT A TRADE SHOW IN MILAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At least that seems to be the proportion of reaction as REFR, in the $2's last week, soars over $5 (though perhaps only momentarily) this morning.

To be sure, there's some big-sounding talk in the release. Isoclima "plans" to introduce films more than four feet in width into the market. Isoclima is "working with" companies in the automotive industry. The film was "produced on large-scale equipment", though whether the equipment was actually used for large-scale production is another matter.

One thing shareholders can be legitimately heartened by is, at least REFR has not yet given up entirely. Now, whether this is a last gasp and last chance to get out, or REFR has more aces up its sleeve, remains to be seen.

One thing seems clear from the level at which the stock momentum washed out: at least one shareholder appears to be selling first and asking questions later.

Strap in. This may get good.

Thermo goes cold

Yes, I know I said I would discuss REFR's presentation at the Long Island Investor's Conference last week, but frankly, no one I've talked to has had anything to say about it, and I haven't gotten around to listening to it for myself. Whatever they said seems to have attracted some tepid interest based on the subsequent price action, but with Stark Investments sitting there taking whatever they can get for their mountain of shares, this thing is not going anywhere fast anyway.

But meanwhile, one of REFR's more infamous cohorts, Thermoview Industries, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this week. Thermoview was the architect of the "rollout" in 2002 into which REFR founder Bob Saxe sold a significant chunk of stock. To this day Thermoview carries a link to a page describing "AlterLite" windows based on SPD, but apparently sales from that miracle product weren't enough to turn the tide for the struggling home improvement company.

This, coupled with Infinitint (f/k/a Razor's Edge and SPD Technologies) appearing to have repackaged itself once again, this time as PrivaSee Glass, selling a decidedly non-SPD-based product, and the decline of the REFR "empire" is becoming more and more evident by the day.

Get thee to the small cappery!

In a rather unexpectedly swift rendering of judgment, the NASD has denied REFR's appeal of its delisting from the Nasdaq National Market to the Nasdaq Small Cap exchange, less than four weeks after the company announced the filing of its appeal.

In past years, the delisting process would often take months. One possible explanation is that the NASD has suddenly gotten much more efficient. This is a little iffy, but strictly speaking, the NASD is not a governmental body, so it's just barely possible that they've allowed some efficiency improvements to creep into their system.

Regardless, there seems little scope for there to have been a great deal of deliberation over this appeal. Was it that REFR's case for continued listing was so weak that it got laughed out of the room? Or did they not even try to make a case, but rather simply filed an empty appeal as a naked attempt to stall for time. If the latter, it doesn't seem to have worked very well.

This comes at an inconvenient moment for REFR, what with their plans to make their pitch to the Long Island Investor's Conference next week. The distinction between National Market and Small Cap may be all but transparent these days, but it will still be one more embarassing issue, out of an extremely long string of them, Joe Harary may have to contend with. Assuming he even opens the floor to questions.

But at any rate, that's for next week. REFR has promised the whole thing will be recorded and kept for posterity's sake, so stay tuned. We may actually have something to talk about again!