Just when it looked like nobody was going to have anything to say about this year's annual meeting, xavierducats spotted this:
To SPD Control Systems CEO John Petraglia's credit, his end of the demo seems to be doing what it's supposed to, limited as that may be. (It's just a pity that it's driving such a sorry display.) But what the heck is up with the department store music?
This is the stuff that's supposedly worth $100 million (as of today's market close)?
Friday, June 13, 2008
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Land of the spree, home of the knave
It's getting close to Annual Meeting time once again for REFR, and there's two items of note this year around. Firstly, we have our fairly regular token shareholder rebellion, as described by a message board poster going by stanedel, who is urging a "no" vote on the re-election of board members (Bob Saxe and Robert Budin this year), and a "yes" vote on a proposal for more transparency on licensee activity, at least in an aggregate sense.Both efforts are of course doomed to fail horribly, of course (such tends to be the case at most public companies), but as a certain gumball-machine-like automoton once said, sometimes a lost cause is the only one worth fighting for.
For management's part, they seem to be prepared to counter with the latest iteration of the report on the glass industry from the Freedonia Marketing Group (in case you were wondering about the picture, not to mention the article title, they're both from "Duck Soup", staged in the fictional country of Freedonia. Yes, a bit of a stretch, but work with me here) . Freedonia reports have been cited by REFR as evidence of growth potential for quite a while now, and conveniently just prior to annual meetings.
So, even as we head towards summer, the forecast remains one of a heavy snow job with no satisfaction for shareholders in sight.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
No shortage of excuses
One claim that the apologists for REFR keep making (and one I'm surprised that I apparently haven't yet explicitly blogged) is that licensees needs to have massive "stockpiles" of SPD film in place before they can make the first sale. The theory being, that when SPD is finally exposed to public demand, that the response will be so overwhelming that unless the vendor is ready for thousands upon thousands of orders overnight, they won't be able to keep up with demand, and that that would be disastrous. Therefore, the theory concludes, the continued dearth of sales of SPD products is actually a bullish indicator, because the longer the delay, the more film the vendors are obviously accumulating so as to be ready for the demand they're anticipating.
Okay, while 90% of you finish your belly laugh, I'll explain it to the 10% for whom that theory makes perfect sense. The simple truth is that shortages are a problem you, as a supplier, want to have. Look at oil. Look at the iPhone. Look at just about every successful video game console released in the past decade.
It's Economics 101. When demand outstrips supply, you get to raise the price. That would be especially vital to the SPD market, where the number one concern is the ability to find buyers at the price point which production costs dictate.
Of course, I'm probably guilty of taking the argument way too seriously here. Obviously, if a year or more passes after a given claim that "supply concerns" are the reason sales haven't begun, that claim can be dismissed as bogus. Of course, by then, the apologists will retort, such a claim is "past history" and therefore irrelevant to the current state of the company.
And so the cycle continues.
Okay, while 90% of you finish your belly laugh, I'll explain it to the 10% for whom that theory makes perfect sense. The simple truth is that shortages are a problem you, as a supplier, want to have. Look at oil. Look at the iPhone. Look at just about every successful video game console released in the past decade.
It's Economics 101. When demand outstrips supply, you get to raise the price. That would be especially vital to the SPD market, where the number one concern is the ability to find buyers at the price point which production costs dictate.
Of course, I'm probably guilty of taking the argument way too seriously here. Obviously, if a year or more passes after a given claim that "supply concerns" are the reason sales haven't begun, that claim can be dismissed as bogus. Of course, by then, the apologists will retort, such a claim is "past history" and therefore irrelevant to the current state of the company.
And so the cycle continues.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
The clock advances
One more item from yesterday's 10-Q has come to light. The 10-K, published not quite two months earlier, contained this statement:
Still, one wonders what's changed to bring the threshold closer than previously expected. Did some anticipated source of revenue not come through for them? Was the $75,000 for SCSC not budgeted for? Are they anticipating new direct expenses from the Equity Incentive Plan? Did the rent on meeting room at the Fox Hollow Inn (site of the annual meeting) go up? About the only thing we can be sure of, REFR will not be forthcoming with an answer anytime soon.
The Company would have to raise additional capital no later than the first quarter of 2010 if operations, including research and development and marketing, are to be maintained at current levels if its revenues do not increase before then.Yesterday's filing, on the other hand, reads:
Based upon existing levels of cash expenditures, existing cash reserves and budgeted revenues, the Company believes that it would not require additional funding until the end of 2009.This distinction is somewhat crucial, as it would mean that, if nothing else were to change, in 10 months REFR would have to include the dreaded "going concern" clause in their 10-K filing. That said, it may only require a trivial cut in expenses to push the zero-hour back beyond January 1st, 2010.
Still, one wonders what's changed to bring the threshold closer than previously expected. Did some anticipated source of revenue not come through for them? Was the $75,000 for SCSC not budgeted for? Are they anticipating new direct expenses from the Equity Incentive Plan? Did the rent on meeting room at the Fox Hollow Inn (site of the annual meeting) go up? About the only thing we can be sure of, REFR will not be forthcoming with an answer anytime soon.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Another 10-Q already?
Man, where does the time go. $170k in revenues this quarter, more than half of that coming from the Hitachi deal. That's got to make a company feel good, being the source of more than half another company's revenue, especially if you have yet to see any benefit for your money.
Apart from REFR making good on $75,000 worth of its promise to support SPD Control Systems, and managing to shave quarterly cash burn back to the low $900,000s, the only other standout item was a $3 million investment in US Treasuries.
Not to say that's irresponsible or anything, but... you really know you're dealing with a dynamic, cutting edge technology company when they can't think of anything more productive to do with half of their cash than throw it into T-Bills. Again, I'm sure this is exactly the kind of activity Hitachi had in mind for their yen.
Same time next quarter then?
Apart from REFR making good on $75,000 worth of its promise to support SPD Control Systems, and managing to shave quarterly cash burn back to the low $900,000s, the only other standout item was a $3 million investment in US Treasuries.
Not to say that's irresponsible or anything, but... you really know you're dealing with a dynamic, cutting edge technology company when they can't think of anything more productive to do with half of their cash than throw it into T-Bills. Again, I'm sure this is exactly the kind of activity Hitachi had in mind for their yen.
Same time next quarter then?
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The biggest shafting yet?
It looks like I may have spoken too soon about us being in a dead spot, as the proxy for the 2008 annual meeting was filed with the SEC today, and boy does it contain a doozy.
It turns out REFR runs its stock options plans on a 10-year cycle, and the last one began in 1998 and thus expired as of the end of 2007. (I'm sure the nearly year-long run in the stock, throughout most of 2007, was just a coincidence.)
The new plan for 2008, as detailed in the proxy, contains quite a few new and innovative features. (If only they put this kind of effort into developing their technology!) In addition to the traditional stock options, there's something called "Stock Appreciation Rights", which bypasses the need to exercise options and sell shares on the market (with all the messy SEC paperwork that goes with that), and just hands out cash and/or stock based on the current share price instead. Then, there's a new class of restricted stock, which the board can (theoretically) control the disposal of, although that has a long history of being abused at other companies.
In other news, a shareholder has taken the initiative to propose that the company be more open in detailing licensee activity. This makes enough sense that it will almost certainly be flatly rejected, or fulfilled in a useless way (see, for example, the plea for hiring of new, younger directors last year, and what investors ultimately got).
Also of note, company founder Robert Saxe is up for re-election to the board, along with fellow septuagenarian Robert Budin. Needlessly to say, they will almost certainly be voted right back in with little or no discussion, but one can dream...
Finally, back on the topic of the stock option, or rather, "Equity Incentive Plan", possibly the biggest insult of all comes in the introduction to the plan:
It turns out REFR runs its stock options plans on a 10-year cycle, and the last one began in 1998 and thus expired as of the end of 2007. (I'm sure the nearly year-long run in the stock, throughout most of 2007, was just a coincidence.)
The new plan for 2008, as detailed in the proxy, contains quite a few new and innovative features. (If only they put this kind of effort into developing their technology!) In addition to the traditional stock options, there's something called "Stock Appreciation Rights", which bypasses the need to exercise options and sell shares on the market (with all the messy SEC paperwork that goes with that), and just hands out cash and/or stock based on the current share price instead. Then, there's a new class of restricted stock, which the board can (theoretically) control the disposal of, although that has a long history of being abused at other companies.
In other news, a shareholder has taken the initiative to propose that the company be more open in detailing licensee activity. This makes enough sense that it will almost certainly be flatly rejected, or fulfilled in a useless way (see, for example, the plea for hiring of new, younger directors last year, and what investors ultimately got).
Also of note, company founder Robert Saxe is up for re-election to the board, along with fellow septuagenarian Robert Budin. Needlessly to say, they will almost certainly be voted right back in with little or no discussion, but one can dream...
Finally, back on the topic of the stock option, or rather, "Equity Incentive Plan", possibly the biggest insult of all comes in the introduction to the plan:
"The Board of Directors believes that the 2008 Plan is essential to the Company's continued success."Words, for once, fail me.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
ForecloSPD
Yet another dead spot in the storyline here, so let's take time-out for an amusing if somewhat sad story of SPD on the message boards.
In the never-ending process of combing for any speck of publicity for SPD anywhere on the Internet, one poster found an SPD window in the sales description of a house for sale (see the listings in the middle of the page) for over a million dollars in Los Gatos, CA, near the edge of Silicon Valley.
Jubilation turned to consternation and embarrassment, however, as other posters dug into the story and discovered that the house, like so many others in California, was both well behind on property taxes (which had ballooned around about 2005) and in default on its mortgage to a tune of just under $600,000.
Now, while the mortgage default doesn't reflect on REFR as such, it makes it unlikely in the extreme that the SPD window would be some brand-new addition to the house. Who spends thousand on "home improvement" for a home they're losing?
Besides that, REFR claims in its SEC filings to this day that there has never been a successful SPD product, so the question arises: where exactly did the window come from, then?
There's one mystery we may never solve.
In the never-ending process of combing for any speck of publicity for SPD anywhere on the Internet, one poster found an SPD window in the sales description of a house for sale (see the listings in the middle of the page) for over a million dollars in Los Gatos, CA, near the edge of Silicon Valley.
Jubilation turned to consternation and embarrassment, however, as other posters dug into the story and discovered that the house, like so many others in California, was both well behind on property taxes (which had ballooned around about 2005) and in default on its mortgage to a tune of just under $600,000.
Now, while the mortgage default doesn't reflect on REFR as such, it makes it unlikely in the extreme that the SPD window would be some brand-new addition to the house. Who spends thousand on "home improvement" for a home they're losing?
Besides that, REFR claims in its SEC filings to this day that there has never been a successful SPD product, so the question arises: where exactly did the window come from, then?
There's one mystery we may never solve.
Monday, April 07, 2008
How dogged can you get?
This blog has seen a lot of displays of groundless optimism for REFR's version of SPD over the years, but this one may be one for the record books.
As detailed previously, REFR was beaten out (assuming they were ever truly in the race) for the task of placing a variable tint on the windows of the Boeing 787. Despite the seemingly comprehensive statement from all parties concerned, REFR longs desperately held out hope (for more than two years!) that something would somehow go terribly wrong with Gentex and PPG's
implementation and that this would open the door for REFR and (presumably) Inspectech Aero to slap their stuff on the 787.
But as the rollout date for the 787 approaches (despite delays) and even that vague hope fades, the eyes of ever-hopeful REFR shareholders turn to Boeing's rival in the commercial airliner business, Airbus. Specifically, they have set their hopes on SPD finding its way into the next major Airbus offering, the A350 XWB.
But there's just a small problem there, in the form of an article on AIN Online last January, reading:
The counter-spin on this article was prompt. One post, for example, read into the article that the Gentex windows were strictly going to be an aftermarket option, while REFR's product would be more prominently marketed.
That was by way of build-up to the recent Hamburg Air Expo, where shareholders convinced themselves that Airbus would announce that SPD was their window-dimming technology of choice for the A350. But it turned out -- get ready for a shock -- that didn't happen.
So, the spin this morning is that Airbus for reasons known only to themselves, was staying mum about their relationship with REFR (and forcing REFR to do likewise) and that there was nothing for it but to keep waiting.
At this point I should note that the A350 is scheduled for its maiden flight sometime in 2012. That's quite a wait indeed, for shareholders in a company with only enough cash on hand to make it through 2009. Guess they better start saving up now to absorb the next stock offering!
As detailed previously, REFR was beaten out (assuming they were ever truly in the race) for the task of placing a variable tint on the windows of the Boeing 787. Despite the seemingly comprehensive statement from all parties concerned, REFR longs desperately held out hope (for more than two years!) that something would somehow go terribly wrong with Gentex and PPG's
implementation and that this would open the door for REFR and (presumably) Inspectech Aero to slap their stuff on the 787.
But as the rollout date for the 787 approaches (despite delays) and even that vague hope fades, the eyes of ever-hopeful REFR shareholders turn to Boeing's rival in the commercial airliner business, Airbus. Specifically, they have set their hopes on SPD finding its way into the next major Airbus offering, the A350 XWB.
But there's just a small problem there, in the form of an article on AIN Online last January, reading:
Now, granted, an isolated, unsourced article is rather far from definitive, and furthermore only covers a specific sub-model of the airliner, but you might think that this might temper the enthusiasm of REFR's shareholders somewhat. That is, of course, assuming you knew nothing about REFR's shareholders.A350XWB Will Offer Electrochromic Cabin Windows
Buyers of an executive version of the new Airbus A350XWB will have the option of selecting the electrochromic (or “smart windows”) technology from PPG. The windows, developed by Gentex of Zeeland, Mich., contain an organic di-electric gel.
When a very low electrical current is introduced, the gel will darken, rendering the window opaque. When no electrical current is present, the window allows the passage of approximately 60 percent of outside light.
Airbus claims the windows on the A350XWB will be larger than those of any other bizliner.
The counter-spin on this article was prompt. One post, for example, read into the article that the Gentex windows were strictly going to be an aftermarket option, while REFR's product would be more prominently marketed.
That was by way of build-up to the recent Hamburg Air Expo, where shareholders convinced themselves that Airbus would announce that SPD was their window-dimming technology of choice for the A350. But it turned out -- get ready for a shock -- that didn't happen.
So, the spin this morning is that Airbus for reasons known only to themselves, was staying mum about their relationship with REFR (and forcing REFR to do likewise) and that there was nothing for it but to keep waiting.
At this point I should note that the A350 is scheduled for its maiden flight sometime in 2012. That's quite a wait indeed, for shareholders in a company with only enough cash on hand to make it through 2009. Guess they better start saving up now to absorb the next stock offering!
Friday, March 14, 2008
One for the books
It was a wild ride for REFR stock in 2007, but in the end, the only thing that had an impact on the income statement was the technology sharing agreement with Hitachi, which looks to have provided roughly half the company's revenue for the entire year (although, as is their wont, the company made no effort to actually break that down in their 10-K filing last night).
The revenue number was just a hair over $400,000, which, in headier times, might be hyped loudly as the 150% increase over last year that it technically is. But that is rather heavily overshadowed by the steeply greater net loss of over $7.5 million, largely due to a huge upswing in stock option issuances during the stocks run in the teens last year.
Other than that, there's nothing much in the report other than a parsing and counter-parsing of the various ways in which the state of licensee activity is portrayed: what they say, what they don't say, what they say they can't say, etc.
Based on the stock's reaction today, I'm kind of doubting 2008 will be anywhere near as fun for the shareholders as 2007 was.
The revenue number was just a hair over $400,000, which, in headier times, might be hyped loudly as the 150% increase over last year that it technically is. But that is rather heavily overshadowed by the steeply greater net loss of over $7.5 million, largely due to a huge upswing in stock option issuances during the stocks run in the teens last year.
Other than that, there's nothing much in the report other than a parsing and counter-parsing of the various ways in which the state of licensee activity is portrayed: what they say, what they don't say, what they say they can't say, etc.
Based on the stock's reaction today, I'm kind of doubting 2008 will be anywhere near as fun for the shareholders as 2007 was.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Licensed to tout
I wasn't even going to bother with this item, but I'm kind of bored and the stock market in general isn't much fun to follow, so I thought I'd mention one item that arose from the text of GKN's license agreement, as related on the message boards:
Something to keep in mind, anyway, when you're wondering why, say, Thermoview would keep AlterLite featured on its front page years after its introduction when it was painfully obvious they weren't selling any of it, to say nothing of after the company itself filed for bankruptcy.
In addition, LICENSEE shall promptly develop and maintain a web site relating to its business which prominently features LICENSOR's SPD technology and LICENSEE's relationship to LICENSOR, and shall participate at all major industry trade shows and conferences and engage in other marketing and promotional activities reasonably necessary to promote LICENSOR's SPD technology and LICENSEE's business relating thereto.Now, this was framed in a context of "why would they agree to do this if they didn't really believe in SPD", but an equally valid take could be, the licensees are only carrying water for REFR because they're contractually obligated to do so.
Something to keep in mind, anyway, when you're wondering why, say, Thermoview would keep AlterLite featured on its front page years after its introduction when it was painfully obvious they weren't selling any of it, to say nothing of after the company itself filed for bankruptcy.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Chain, chain, chain of foolishness
Almost lost in the non-hubbub over the licensing of GKN yesterday was a glimmer of a notion as to why GKN may have gotten into the licensee club at this time. (Yes, I know, Joe specifically said that GKN approached REFR, but that could mean a lot of things, or nothing at all.)
GKN is, and has been a long-time supplier of glass for passenger windows for Boeing aircraft. This is apparently no different for the 787. But wait, you say, weren't Gentex and PPG supposed to supply the windows? Is there a problem? Have those two quietly gotten the boot as a supplier with GKN, backed by their license of SPD, now replacing them?
That's chain the logic intended to be induced, I think, and such was expressed on the message boards yesterday. But, as just about everyone else on the board simultaneously pointed out... there's just one little problem. GKN's license specifically says -- and, to REFR's credit, the press release does mention this -- they're licensed only to put SPD in armored glass. And I can say without fear of contradiction that the passenger windows on the 787? Not going to be armored glass.
The highly likely truth of the matter is that GKN is and always was supplying the glass for the Boeing 787 windows, but rather than supply it directly to Boeing, they are this time shipping it to Gentex and/or PPG for the application of their electrochromatics. That's simple, straightforward, and therefore certain to be rejected in favor of something far more complex that somehow puts REFR in the driver's seat, by those determined to push that agenda. But that's their problem.
The only question remaining, could it be just a coincidence that REFR would choose to license a company working on a project of which their own technology was recently falsely hyped as being a part? Almost certainly not 100% so, but it's not a lock that this was intended entirely as a subtle ploy. It's at least plausible that they wanted to get SPD somewhere vaguely in the neighborhood of the 787 supply chain, "just in case" the whole Gentex/PPG project blows up, even though there's no evidence of that actually happening.
Bottom line, there now seems to be less here than even I had thought.
GKN is, and has been a long-time supplier of glass for passenger windows for Boeing aircraft. This is apparently no different for the 787. But wait, you say, weren't Gentex and PPG supposed to supply the windows? Is there a problem? Have those two quietly gotten the boot as a supplier with GKN, backed by their license of SPD, now replacing them?
That's chain the logic intended to be induced, I think, and such was expressed on the message boards yesterday. But, as just about everyone else on the board simultaneously pointed out... there's just one little problem. GKN's license specifically says -- and, to REFR's credit, the press release does mention this -- they're licensed only to put SPD in armored glass. And I can say without fear of contradiction that the passenger windows on the 787? Not going to be armored glass.
The highly likely truth of the matter is that GKN is and always was supplying the glass for the Boeing 787 windows, but rather than supply it directly to Boeing, they are this time shipping it to Gentex and/or PPG for the application of their electrochromatics. That's simple, straightforward, and therefore certain to be rejected in favor of something far more complex that somehow puts REFR in the driver's seat, by those determined to push that agenda. But that's their problem.
The only question remaining, could it be just a coincidence that REFR would choose to license a company working on a project of which their own technology was recently falsely hyped as being a part? Almost certainly not 100% so, but it's not a lock that this was intended entirely as a subtle ploy. It's at least plausible that they wanted to get SPD somewhere vaguely in the neighborhood of the 787 supply chain, "just in case" the whole Gentex/PPG project blows up, even though there's no evidence of that actually happening.
Bottom line, there now seems to be less here than even I had thought.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
GKN
REFR announced the signing of a new licensee last night, GKN Aerospace of Garden Grove, CA. GKN is licensed to sell "armored" SPD glass in various vehicle markets.
No doubt this is about to give the stock another juicing just as last week's effort was in full retreat and on the verge of unraveling entirely. Whether GKN will have any more success in marketing SPD than any other licensee remains highly debatable, of course, but, with the at least theoretical markets GKN may market SPD towards, at least REFR now has something to keep its highly excitable shareholder base enthralled through the annual report and shareholder's meeting.
And so the cycle begins anew.
Update: It looks like the traders in this stock are determined to make a liar out of me, as it didn't take more than a few minutes for the initial enthusiasm to dry up and revert to the recent pattern of downtrending most of the day. Of course, there's the equally patterned final hour surge to come, so shareholder's hopes that they will be able to say something came of this news aren't dead yet. Still, it's a bit telling that even Briefing.com meets with considerable skepticism when it declares REFR "In Play".
No doubt this is about to give the stock another juicing just as last week's effort was in full retreat and on the verge of unraveling entirely. Whether GKN will have any more success in marketing SPD than any other licensee remains highly debatable, of course, but, with the at least theoretical markets GKN may market SPD towards, at least REFR now has something to keep its highly excitable shareholder base enthralled through the annual report and shareholder's meeting.
And so the cycle begins anew.
Update: It looks like the traders in this stock are determined to make a liar out of me, as it didn't take more than a few minutes for the initial enthusiasm to dry up and revert to the recent pattern of downtrending most of the day. Of course, there's the equally patterned final hour surge to come, so shareholder's hopes that they will be able to say something came of this news aren't dead yet. Still, it's a bit telling that even Briefing.com meets with considerable skepticism when it declares REFR "In Play".
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Got a match?
REFR st0ck was up 17% today. In news which may or may not be connected, licensee SPD Control Systems announced that it had received a "matching funds contract" from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority.
I say "may or may not" because this news has thus far received no publicity outside of the Yahoo! message boards. Additionally, it's a little hard to see just how this directly benefits REFR, since whatever money is collected should supposedly be going to SCSC, not REFR.
The spin seems to be that this contract represents some kind of endorsement by the State of New York of SPD as the Energy-Saving Technology of the Future™, but, given that that the projects SCSC is working on don't actually themselves incorporate SPD, nor are they even necessarily dependent upon SPD, that seems more than a little bit of a stretch.
So basically today's action seems to have as its motivation "It Is News And Therefore We Must Buy". We'll see how far that gets today's buyers.
I say "may or may not" because this news has thus far received no publicity outside of the Yahoo! message boards. Additionally, it's a little hard to see just how this directly benefits REFR, since whatever money is collected should supposedly be going to SCSC, not REFR.
The spin seems to be that this contract represents some kind of endorsement by the State of New York of SPD as the Energy-Saving Technology of the Future™, but, given that that the projects SCSC is working on don't actually themselves incorporate SPD, nor are they even necessarily dependent upon SPD, that seems more than a little bit of a stretch.
So basically today's action seems to have as its motivation "It Is News And Therefore We Must Buy". We'll see how far that gets today's buyers.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Did I Limbaugh a long?
Arch-conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh often brags about how he can ruin a journalist's reputation simply by praising and/or agreeing with him. Of course Limbaugh, like him or not, is a highly visible media figure, so it was much to my surprise that my humble and, let's face it, obscure blog may have had much the same effect on a REFR shareholder and message board poster.
In my last post, I reposted uncritically a list of demands from a certain message board poster who, while a loyal shareholder, is rapidly running out of patience with this company's management. This morning, I learned indirectly that a certain blog, whose sole purpose seems to be to "shadow" this blog with rebuttals, has directed some very scathing words at that shareholder.
I fear I may have damaged this shareholder's reputation among his peers, and as such hereby give my deepest apologies to him. I'm even considering striking my last post solely because of the extent to which it may have hurt him. It was never my intent to damage innocent parties with my words, and I would like to make amends for that if possible.
In my last post, I reposted uncritically a list of demands from a certain message board poster who, while a loyal shareholder, is rapidly running out of patience with this company's management. This morning, I learned indirectly that a certain blog, whose sole purpose seems to be to "shadow" this blog with rebuttals, has directed some very scathing words at that shareholder.
I fear I may have damaged this shareholder's reputation among his peers, and as such hereby give my deepest apologies to him. I'm even considering striking my last post solely because of the extent to which it may have hurt him. It was never my intent to damage innocent parties with my words, and I would like to make amends for that if possible.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Some simple proposals
A shareholder posting under the alias "threespeech" posted a series of requests of REFR management to help shore up its flagging credibility. This blog wholeheartedly endorses the notion that implementing any one of these suggestions would provide a major reputation boost, and as such hereby repeats the requests unedited:
Someone in this company needs to take charge and here is how:
1) That person needs to call an open uncensored conference call to stand up and face all challenges. To address the issues that are presented on the table. And that conference should not end until all questions are answered. I want someone to look me in the eyes and tell me the truth.
2) I want someone that instead of letting the production licensees dictate what they are going to do, stand up and challenge those licensees to achieve what they set out to do, to inspire those people to produce a new technology that may not only improve the energy problem in some small way but also inspire the people that are depending on them, the shareholders.
3) I want someone that will say, "yeah, we screwed up and this is how we are going to fix it." What I don't want, sorry to all the lawyers out there, is someone that is trying to figure out a way around discussing the problem by blaming someone or something else. Hell, if we all took responsibility for our actions not many lawyers would be needed.
4) This person will also need to take five volunteers, I don't care if four of them are shorts as long as I get to go, and tour Hitachi, DIC and Isoclima's production facilities, as well as AGP's, Laminated Technologies and Craftsman's facilities. Asking a lot here? Damn right, this company has a lot of proving to do themselves for all the delays and miscalculations over the years.
5) And finally for now, from all the production and installation talk filtering out from RFI, public reports of revenues from royalties, not the artificial license fees.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
A promotion of another sort
REFR began 2008 with the dramatic announcement that Steven M. Slovak, previously Director of Film Development, was now Vice President - Technology. Given that there was no such position previously, and that it wasn't stated whether anyone else was replacing him in his former position, it's a little less than clear what, if anything, this actually means. But, since it was apparently worth a press release and a 8-K filing, one has to presume it means something. We'll be sure keep tabs on this vital development as events warrant.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Out with (some of) the old
As a literally last-minute release for the year 2007, REFR announced the retirement of board member Dr. Al Malvino. Malvino, ironically, despite being 76 according to the release, actually had been REFR's most recent addition to the board until their additions earlier this month. He had also been a heavy advocate of the stock on the message boards up until 2000.
It is of note that Malvino's personal website, which one contained considerable information on SPD technology, has had all those references removal, replacing them with electrical engineering material of the type he used in the various textbooks he wrote over the course of his career.
Malvino did cite health concerns as at least part of his reason for retirement, and although he issued a statement expressing enthusiasm about the company, one is still left to wonder about the fact that, for all the effort he placed into very careful and extensive research into the company, as document on the message boards, none of it actually bore revenue-producing fruit during his tenure there.
With two additions to the board that would seem to imply one more retirement may be in the offing, but apparently that person is not quite ready to take the gold watch just yet. Stay tuned.
It is of note that Malvino's personal website, which one contained considerable information on SPD technology, has had all those references removal, replacing them with electrical engineering material of the type he used in the various textbooks he wrote over the course of his career.
Malvino did cite health concerns as at least part of his reason for retirement, and although he issued a statement expressing enthusiasm about the company, one is still left to wonder about the fact that, for all the effort he placed into very careful and extensive research into the company, as document on the message boards, none of it actually bore revenue-producing fruit during his tenure there.
With two additions to the board that would seem to imply one more retirement may be in the offing, but apparently that person is not quite ready to take the gold watch just yet. Stay tuned.
Monday, December 17, 2007
The oldest new licensee
REFR stock got another (very) short-lived bounce off a press release this morning, announcing AGC Flat Glass Europe as the newest name among licensees of its SPD technology. Even better, the headline claims a license was "sold", implying that money changed actually changed hands from AGC/FGE to REFR (though just how much is, as ever, "undisclosed").
Of course, as usual, there's a couple of devils in the details. For one thing, AGC Flat Glass Europe is simply the renaming of Glaverbel SA, which originally took a license in 1992, sold REFR what is now a substantial portion of REFR's patent inventory in 1999, and was bought by AGC in 2002. In other words, it's only a slight variation of the British Isles license shuffle of earlier this year.
But hey, anything for news, right?
Of course, as usual, there's a couple of devils in the details. For one thing, AGC Flat Glass Europe is simply the renaming of Glaverbel SA, which originally took a license in 1992, sold REFR what is now a substantial portion of REFR's patent inventory in 1999, and was bought by AGC in 2002. In other words, it's only a slight variation of the British Isles license shuffle of earlier this year.
But hey, anything for news, right?
Friday, December 14, 2007
Or perhaps I should have said relatively new
I've had it pointed out to me that the new directors are not exactly spring chickens, Richard Hermon-Taylor being 67 and Philip Guthrie 63 (give or take a year for each). Not exactly what one would think of as satisfying the request for board members "significantly below 70 years of age" from that shareholder proxy, although it does knock down that median age a little bit anyway. Still, it kind of blunts the notion that these guys are coming in to shake things up a whole lot.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
New blood at last
REFR announced the addition of two new board members last night: M. Philip Guthrie, former CFO at Southwest Airlines and Braniff, and Richard Hermon-Taylor, long-time director at Harley Davidson.
The good news is that, at least ostensibly, these new additions are probably not part of Bob Saxe's immediate circle of friends, and therefore may bring a badly-needed measure of independence to the board. The only obvious downside is, it probably won't be enough: friends of Bob and Joe will still hold control, even if a couple of them (possibly including Bob Saxe himself) retire, an event to which I believe this move is a prelude.
For once, it's a move that I don't immediately see a cynical motivation behind, but rather a response to legitimate shareholder unrest as evidenced by the proxy proposal earlier this year.
Of course, it's not an immediate cure for anything but it will be interesting to watch how our new arrivals react to what they find when they assume their duties in earnest.
The good news is that, at least ostensibly, these new additions are probably not part of Bob Saxe's immediate circle of friends, and therefore may bring a badly-needed measure of independence to the board. The only obvious downside is, it probably won't be enough: friends of Bob and Joe will still hold control, even if a couple of them (possibly including Bob Saxe himself) retire, an event to which I believe this move is a prelude.
For once, it's a move that I don't immediately see a cynical motivation behind, but rather a response to legitimate shareholder unrest as evidenced by the proxy proposal earlier this year.
Of course, it's not an immediate cure for anything but it will be interesting to watch how our new arrivals react to what they find when they assume their duties in earnest.
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